In the short term, the failure of the Doha Round will make little difference: the global economy is booming, and with it world trade. Optimists suggest that talks may resume soon after the US’s Congressional elections in November and that little lasting harm may be done. I hope they are right, but unfortunately that rosy scenario is highly improbable. The Round is unlikely to resume in earnest until a new US president is in office - and who knows when a deal may finally be concluded. In the meanwhile, the multiateral trading system may be stretched to breaking point.

Let me explain. Twelve years have elapsed since the Uruguay Round was completed and since then the WTO has staggered from one failed meeting to another: Seattle, Cancún, Hong Kong and now Geneva. The only exception to this dismal run of failure is the Doha launch in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when circumstances were truly exceptional. Perhaps the system is broken. The world economy is booming and yet a Doha deal remains elusive. If a deal can’t be done when the going is good, perhaps it can’t be done at all.

Next year hardly looks promising: President Bush is set to lose his "fast-track" power to push through trade deals without Congress unpicking them, precluding US negotiators from striking a credible bargain with other WTO members; a new farm bill that could entrench America’s contentious subsidies is in the offing; and an economic downturn could sharpen fears about trade-related job losses.

But if the round remains on ice for too long, the WTO risks being sidelined, with the benefits of global competition, multilateral rules and impartial adjudication giving way to tit-for-tat protectionism and a web of bilateral arrangements that privilege rich country companies at the expense of the poor.

Already, the EU is looking to conclude bilateral trade deals with countries in Asia, while the US pursues its own bilateral agenda with renewed vigour. These misnamed "free-trade agreements" risk tying the world economy up in knots: how are companies supposed to build an efficient global supply chain if a tangled web of rules-of-origin requirements and other fiendishly complicated protectionist rules distort their operations?

What needs to be done to get the Doha show back on the road? The EU needs to agree to bigger cuts in its farm tariffs, the US needs to make a better offer on agricultural subsidies, and big developing countries, notably India, need to show greater willingness to open up their industrial and service sectors. It isn’t rocket science, and it is in each country’s best interest, but overcoming entrenched political opposition to liberalisation is not easy.

Perhaps the protectionist fallout from a global downturn will scare WTO members to act; or perhaps it will take the prospect of the US losing faith in the WTO, the only multilateral institution which it still wholeheartedly supports, to bring Europe, Japan, India and other recalcitrants back to the negotiating table.