The US and others seem to believe that China’s currency is the biggest obstacle to the global recovery. That is highly debatable, as I argued on VoxEU. In any case, the Chinese renminbi is up 3.1% against the dollar over the past 12 months. And since inflation is 4.4% in China and only 1.1% in [...]
VoxEU, 2 November 2010. While the debate over global imbalances often focuses on China, this column argues that the biggest threat to the world economy comes from the other side of the seesaw – the US.
Check out my new article on VoxEU.org.
In his blog post, Dealing with Chermany, Paul Krugman advocates threatening China (and, indirectly, Germany) with an anti-dumping duty to get them to boost domestic demand. China has done nothing to change its policy of massive currency manipulation… Europe is going wild for fiscal austerity… everyone is counting on the US to become the consumer [...]
I debated the issue on BBC’s Hardtalk with Irwin Stelzer of the Hudson Institute and Italian politician Emma Bonino. Interview by Zeinab Badawi. Watch it on BBC iPlayer For those outside the UK who cannot access BBC iPlayer, watch it on YouTube. Part 2 Part 3
I was interviewed on RTE Radio 1′s Today with Pat Kenny show today about Aftershock and prospects for Ireland’s economy. Listen to it here.
Interesting piece by Nayan Chanda
I had the pleasure of meeting Daniel Ben-Ami on Saturday and recommend you check out his blog and his book, Ferraris for All, which is out in July and makes the important case for economic progress, which too many people in the West have unfortunately lost confidence in. As I argue in Aftershock, we should [...]
Amid all the worries about cheap Chinese exports undercutting Western products and costing Americans and Europeans their jobs, people often forget that China’s explosive growth also creates huge new opportunities for Westerners. A decade ago, Chinese tourists were rare birds. Now, they are the world’s fourth-biggest spenders. They spent $43.7 billion last year, 21% more [...]
It is outrageous that governments bailed out failed banks. There were better alternatives. But given that mistake, it is understandable that governments – and taxpayers – want to get their money back. The IMF has therefore proposed that G20 countries levy a tax on banks’ balance sheets, to pay for future bailouts or the recent [...]
China and the next five largest energy-consuming countries in East Asia could stabilise their greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 without compromising growth, according to a major new World Bank report. The report, Winds of Change: East Asia’s Sustainable Energy Future, says that an extra investment of $80bn per year – or an average of 0.8% of regional GDP [...]
China’s latest trade figures show that its imports soared by 66% over the past 12 months, while exports grew by 24%. As a result, China recorded its first monthly trade deficit in 6 years. Contrary to those who accuse China of being a drag on the global economy, it is a leading engine of growth.
Excellent article by Avinash Persaud on Vox Highlights: The notion that the world was suffering from a savings glut, that would have pulled us all into recession were it not for America’s selfless consumption, is also as deficient in arithmetic as it is self-serving. You cannot save yourself into boom… But all it would take [...]
A truly excellent article. Excerpts On currency manipulation: The US treasury has been charged by Congress to assess whether China is a “currency manipulator”. Although President Barack Obama has now delayed for some months when the treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, must issue his report, the very concept of “currency manipulation” itself is flawed: all governments [...]
Patrick Messerlin, one of France’s most perceptive economists, has written an interesting piece in the new issue of Europe’s World about how OECD countries should respond to the rise of China, India and other emerging economies. Brazil, China, India, Korea and Mexico are already playing a key, positive role in the world economy. First, in [...]
This is a more technical post. When financial panic spread even to sound emerging economies after Lehman collapsed in September 2008, the Fed responded by extending swap lines to central banks in Brazil, Korea, Mexico and Singapore, while the ECB provided them to Hungary and Poland. These unprecedented moves played a key role in quelling [...]
Private consumption is 7% up on pre-crisis levels in the 10 largest Asian economies (excluding stagnant Japan) http://bit.ly/9hxgPW
In recent years, Western governments have voiced concerns about Asian governments’ vast sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) investing in Western companies. Some called this "investment protectionism" But as Western banks faced collapse, they were delighted to receive capital injections from Asian SWFs – and Western governments didn’t object. In a crisis, needs must. Now, though, Asia’s [...]
For years, the US has lectured China on how it should run its economy. Now, the tables are turned. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson went to Beijing to urge the Chinese government not to let its currency weaken. The Chinese hit back in style. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Chinese central bank, urged the US [...]
Willem Buiter sums it up perfectly: The private financial sector has to deleverage massively, but would (with credit markets and wholesale financial markets closed for business) do so in an unnecessarily destructive way if left to its own devices. The household sectors in the US, the UK and a number of other European countries have [...]