Mon interview avec atlantico.fr
China is a rising economic power, the European Union a declining one. So Britain’s future is best served by hitching its wagon to Beijing rather than to Brussels. As last week’s high-profile visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping shows, Britain can prosper as a global trading power outside the EU.
Not so fast. The EU accounted for 44.5% of the UK’s exports in 2013, China for a mere 3.4%. Whereas half of foreign direct investment in Britain comes from the rest of the EU, Chinese FDI is still tiny. So Britain’s economic relationship with China is not going to be a substitute for its ties with the EU any time soon. Nor should it ever be: because the two are in fact complementary. The much-heralded new “golden decade” for relations between Britain and China highlights how EU membership is not an impediment to doing business globally. On the contrary: Britain’s membership of the EU is part of its appeal to China, as President Xi himself emphasised. So Britain doesn’t need to choose between being European or global: it can – and should – be both.
My latest for CapX
This brings me to a wider point about political integration, as raised by economist and author Philippe Legrain: that the last thing the EU needs is ever-closer union. What makes this anti-integration argument so intriguing is that its proponent is pro-European.
Mr Legrain’s argument is that the political integration on offer is of the wrong kind, and thus deserves to be rejected. It is not the Keynesian fiscal union, preferred in France in particular, but the German variety. When the Germans talk about fiscal union, they mean rule enforcement, not macroeconomic stabilisation, eurobonds, deposit insurance or fiscal backstops. I would agree with his overall conclusion — that if this is the kind of integration on offer, it is better simply to say no and stick with the present system.
A good example of why the present system may be preferable to a bad fiscal union is Italy’s 2016 budget. It includes a much higher deficit than would have been the case under a rigid enforcement of the various fiscal rules because the European Commission interprets the rules more flexibly than before. This flexibility allows Italy to accompany its relative weak economic recovery with moderate fiscal expansion, which seems more or less appropriate. Under a German-style fiscal union regime, it would not have been able to do so.
The debate about the future of Europe and the eurozone thus forks out in more than two directions. It is not just about pro or anti, leave or stay, but about the kind and degree of integration we want. There is a multitude of options — and for now no minimalist consensus behind any of them.
Read his FT piece here
D’un point de vue économique,
les chiffres récents de l’immigration constituent une
excellente nouvelle. Mais d’un point de vue politique,
ils sont plus problématiques. On ne peut pas dire que
le gouvernement fasse preuve de sagesse, lorsqu’il
promet de réduire de plusieurs dizaines de milliers
un chiffre qui, en grande partie, ne dépend pas de lui
veut détourner l’attention de ses piètres résultats sur
le solde migratoire. Mais vouloir emprisonner des
travailleurs sans papiers, aux frais du contribuable,
plutôt qu’essayer de les aider à intégrer un univers de
travail légal, où ils pourront alors payer des impôts
comme tout le monde, c’est d’un simplisme totalement
Article by Ludovic Lamant Read it here
“The EU works reasonably well when sharing collective gains (from trade, for instance),” Philippe Legrain, a former European Commission adviser, wrote this week for Foreign Policy. “But it is hopeless at sharing out costs, whether the real ones of the financial crisis or the perceived ones of the refugee crisis.
“Seven long years of economic misery … have shredded support for collective European action … Unsurprisingly, then, the EU approach to the refugee crisis has been a shambles.”
Read the full piece here.
I was interviewed about this by Democracy Now!
I was interviewed on BBC World TV News on 28 August
Paul Collier, an expert on African economies, has written a poorly researched book on immigration, Exodus, that is full of holes, as Michael Clemens pointed out in his review in Foreign Affairs. On Al Jazeera’s Head to Head programme presented by Mehdi Hasan, I was part of a panel challenging his views. Watch it here I speak 13:40 minutes in, 21:10, 32:15, 37:25, 40:30, 46:00